PC shipments fall 21% in Q3 2026 as AI demand drives up memory prices, and Q4 looks worse

Global PC shipments fell 21% in the third quarter of 2026, and the research firm behind the numbers says the worst is still ahead. Counterpoint Research estimates that 57.0 million PCs shipped worldwide between July and September, down from 72.2 million a year earlier. Its preliminary report, published October 22, blames soaring memory prices driven by AI demand, and it expects the decline to deepen to 27% in the fourth quarter.

That forecast matters if you are planning to buy a laptop for the holidays. Higher component costs are already showing up in system prices, and the firm says vendors are steering toward configurations that leave fewer affordable choices. Here is what the data shows, which brands held up best, and how to shop smart while it lasts.

What happened to PC shipments in Q3 2026

Counterpoint's numbers point to one of the steepest quarterly drops the PC market has seen in years. Every major vendor except ASUS posted a double digit annual decline, according to Wccftech's summary of the report.

Here is how the top five brands fared, per Counterpoint's estimates as reported by Wccftech and MacRumors:

| Vendor | Q3 2026 shipments | Market share | Change vs. Q3 2025 | |---|---|---|---| | Lenovo | 15.0 million | 26.3% | down 23% | | HP | 10.3 million | 18.1% | down 31% | | Dell | 7.6 million | 13.3% | down 25% | | Apple | 5.6 million | 9.8% | down 11% | | ASUS | 5.2 million | 9.2% | down 7% |

Lenovo kept the top spot despite losing nearly a quarter of its volume. HP took the hardest hit among the top six vendors. Dell was not far behind.

Apple and ASUS gained ground

The two smallest names in the top five shrank the least, so both grew their share of a smaller pie. Apple's share rose from 8.7% to 9.8%, and Counterpoint identified the MacBook Neo as a key contributor to that performance, according to MacRumors. ASUS lifted its share from 7.8% to 9.2% and, per Wccftech, grew 19.4% from the previous quarter.

Apple has more Mac news lined up, too. We have covered Apple's plan to release new products on four straight Fridays and reports of its first touchscreen MacBook Pro, both of which could test how much buyers will spend in a squeezed market.

Why memory prices are crushing the PC market

The short version: AI data centers are buying up memory, and everyone else is paying for it.

According to Wccftech's summary of the report, AI demand has absorbed large volumes of DRAM and NAND flash supply. As memory and component costs rise, PC makers pass those costs on, and consumers respond by holding on to their current machines longer. Counterpoint's charts, as described by Wccftech, show DRAM and SSD price indexes peaking in the first quarter of 2026 before easing, with stabilization not expected until early 2027. Wccftech also noted that memory maker Micron has said shortages will persist until 2028.

Business buying did not save the quarter. MacRumors and Wccftech both reported that commercial demand, helped by Windows migration and office fleet upgrades, offered some support but was not enough to offset the overall drop.

The same pressure is hitting phones. Earlier this week we reported that smartphone shipments fell to a 14 year low, again with memory costs as a big factor.

What the analysts said

Counterpoint senior analyst Minsoo Kang pointed to affordability "becoming an increasingly critical purchasing factor," according to Wccftech. Associate director David Naranjo cautioned that "stabilization should not be mistaken for recovery" and said "the winners will be those that combine innovation with competitive pricing."

That last line is a useful lens for shoppers. Brands that can hold prices steady may keep gaining share, while those that pass every cost increase on to buyers could keep shrinking.

Who is affected by the PC shipment slump

Holiday shoppers. If the fourth quarter falls 27% as Counterpoint forecasts, expect thinner stock of budget models and fewer deep discounts on well specced machines. Base configurations with 8GB of RAM or small SSDs may be easier to find than value models with 16GB and 512GB storage.

Students and families. Budget laptops are where memory cost increases bite hardest, because the RAM and storage make up a bigger share of the total price.

Small businesses. Companies replacing older fleets for Windows migration may face higher per unit costs than they budgeted for.

PC makers. HP, Dell and Lenovo each lost between 23% and 31% of their volume. Expect more pressure on margins, and possibly more aggressive pushes toward premium AI PCs where component costs are easier to absorb, like the Surface Laptop Ultra.

What to do if you need a new laptop

You do not have to wait out the shortage if your current machine is failing. A few practical steps can stretch your budget.

1. Decide your memory floor first. For most people, 16GB of RAM is the comfortable minimum in 2026. Choosing that up front keeps you from being upsold later or stuck with a machine that slows down fast.
2. Buy sooner rather than later if you need it. Counterpoint expects the fourth quarter to be worse than the third, and its own charts do not show memory prices settling until 2027.
3. Look at certified refurbished models. Refurbished laptops from manufacturers often come with warranties and were built before the latest price increases.
4. Compare total cost, not just sticker price. A cheaper model with 8GB of soldered RAM may cost you more in the long run if you need to replace it sooner.
5. Keep your current machine going. If it still works, an SSD upgrade or battery replacement can buy you another year or two while prices settle.

Our guide on how to choose a laptop without overpaying walks through specs that matter and those you can skip.

What to watch next

Other research firms such as IDC and Gartner typically publish their own quarterly PC estimates, and their figures may differ from Counterpoint's preliminary numbers. Watch whether they confirm a decline of this size.

Next, watch holiday pricing. Black Friday deals will show whether vendors are willing to cut prices on inventory or hold firm to protect margins.

Finally, watch memory makers. Any sign that DRAM and NAND supply is loosening would be the earliest hint that laptop prices could come down in 2027. Counterpoint currently expects 2027 shipments to be broadly flat compared with 2026, which means no quick bounce back. For more on laptops, phones and other devices, visit our gadgets section.

Frequently asked questions

How much did PC shipments fall in Q3 2026?

Counterpoint Research estimates global PC shipments fell 21% year over year to 57.0 million units, down from 72.2 million in Q3 2025.

Why are PC shipments dropping?

AI data centers are absorbing large amounts of memory supply, pushing up DRAM and SSD prices. PC makers are passing those costs on, and many buyers are delaying upgrades.

Which PC brand sold the most in Q3 2026?

Lenovo stayed number one with about 15.0 million units and a 26.3% share, even though its shipments fell 23%.

Will laptop prices go down soon?

Not right away. Counterpoint expects a 27% drop in Q4 shipments and does not see memory prices stabilizing until around early 2027.