Intel Stock Sinks 20% as Q4 Outlook Overshadows Strong Quarter

Twenty percent. That is how much Intel stock gave up in after hours trading on Thursday, October 29, minutes after the chipmaker reported third quarter results that beat Wall Street's profit estimates. The quarter was not the problem. The forecast for the next one was.

Shares had closed the regular session at $92.07, down 3.6% on the day, according to Yahoo Finance. By 4:10 p.m. Eastern they were changing hands near $73.25. CoinDesk reported the drop had widened to about 25% before Friday's open, with Intel dragging Nasdaq 100 futures lower.

Intel's quarter in nine numbers

All figures below come from Intel's third quarter 2026 earnings release unless noted.

• $16.5 billion: total revenue, up 21% from a year earlier and in line with analyst forecasts.
• $0.52: adjusted earnings per share, up 126% and well above the roughly $0.41 analysts expected, per Yahoo Finance.
• $0.60: GAAP earnings per share, down 33% year over year.
• 44.1%: adjusted gross margin.
• $7.3 billion: Data Center and AI revenue, up 78%.
• $6.7 billion: Intel Foundry revenue, up 58%.
• $8.1 billion: Client Computing and Physical AI revenue, down 5%.
• $15 billion to $16 billion: fourth quarter revenue guidance.
• 38%: adjusted gross margin Intel expects next quarter, about six points below this quarter.

$17 billion: the number Wall Street wanted

Analysts had been looking for about $17 billion in fourth quarter revenue, according to Yahoo Finance, and Investing.com put the consensus at $17.08 billion with adjusted earnings of $0.44 a share. Intel's own midpoint of $15.5 billion lands well short, and its adjusted EPS guide of $0.25 is far under what analysts modeled.

The margin outlook stung almost as much. Dropping from 44.1% to 38% in a single quarter tells investors that each dollar of sales will bring in less profit, even as demand for server chips stays strong.

$8.1 billion in PC chips, and why that missed

Intel's PC business is still its biggest segment, and it came in about $700 million below the $8.8 billion analysts expected, per Yahoo Finance. Yahoo pointed to tough comparisons with last year, when the end of Windows 10 support pushed many people to upgrade, and to rising PC prices. That fits the broader industry slump we covered when PC shipments fell 21% in the third quarter.

Intel does not expect a quick rebound. "Looking ahead, we see the PC slowdown continuing at least through the first half of next year," CFO David Zinsner said in the release.

78% growth that could not carry the stock

The data center numbers would have been the headline in a different quarter. Revenue of $7.3 billion beat the $6.6 billion analysts expected, and foundry sales also topped estimates.

The catch is supply. CEO Lip-Bu Tan said Intel's "immediate priority is to unlock additional supply to meet extraordinary demand for our Xeon family." In other words, Intel could sell more server chips than it can make right now. CoinDesk also cited supply bottlenecks and reported that Intel raised its 2026 capital spending plan to $20 billion, adding to investor worry about how much the industry is pouring into AI. Cloud providers face the same squeeze, as Amazon showed when AWS said its capacity was sold out.

$4.2 billion in spending this quarter

Capital expenditures reached $4.2 billion in the third quarter, up from $3 billion a year earlier. That money funds the factories Intel needs to close its supply gap, but it lands at the same moment profit margins are set to shrink.

Intel was not the only tech name punished this week for a strong quarter paired with a softer outlook. Fortinet fell 25% on similar worries. For Intel, the next test is whether extra Xeon supply arrives fast enough to offset a PC market that management itself expects to stay weak into mid 2027. Follow more company news on our tech page.